Yevgeny Prigozhin wanted two men gone: Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff. In June 2023 the head of the Wagner mercenary group threatened to march on Moscow unless they joined his cause, then moved north to do it. His demand to remove or hand over both men failed.
The episode put a harsh light on Shoigu, who has run Russia’s Defense Ministry since 2012.
A rival’s accusations
Prigozhin had been attacking the ministry for months. He accused it of failing to deliver ammunition to his fighters. He said Shoigu was chasing personal goals and awards, such as a hero’s medal, while deceiving Putin about the situation in Ukraine. The Friday before the revolt, he went further and charged Shoigu with lying to the Russian people about the real reason for the invasion in February 2022. He also accused Russian troops of attacking Wagner.
Putin responded in a televised address on Saturday, calling the Wagner fighters “traitors” who would “inevitably be punished.” Late that day a deal was struck. The FSB dropped its investigation of Prigozhin on condition that he move to Belarus, and Wagner’s soldiers were promised they would not face retribution.
Shoigu’s standing
DW described Shoigu as nominally Putin’s most important man, though it noted doubts about how much trust the former Kremlin favorite still enjoyed. Crimea in 2014 and the Syrian operation counted as successes for him. His reputation declined once the war on Ukraine began, and DW said it was an open secret that Putin had hoped the invasion would go very differently. The outlet also said he stands accused of numerous war crimes.
The mutiny’s collapse, DW concluded, was likely to strengthen him again. Hardly any soldiers had defected to Wagner, so the military appeared loyal to its minister. Putin was standing by him for now.
Gerasimov had taken over command of troops in Ukraine from Sergei Surovikin in January 2023. He took his post in 2012, after Shoigu became defense minister, and serves as Shoigu’s first deputy. Surovikin, who commanded in Ukraine from October 2022 until he was demoted, had been seen as a Prigozhin ally. In a video message that Friday evening he urged Prigozhin to end the standoff. The enemy was “waiting to see the exacerbation of our domestic political situation,” he said, and he called for submission to Putin’s command.
