BEIJING, July 13 — A market that barely existed a decade ago is now projected to be worth $6.5 billion by 2030. The global quantum computing sector, valued at $866 million in 2023 according to MarketsandMarkets, is expanding at a compound annual growth rate of 32.1 percent. That trajectory reflects a technology moving from theoretical physics labs toward commercial viability, though the industry remains in its early stages.
The numbers from MarketsandMarkets tell a story of sustained, rapid growth. From a base of less than a billion dollars in 2023, the market is expected to multiply more than sevenfold in seven years.
The compound annual growth rate of 32.1 percent places quantum computing among the fastest-growing technology segments tracked by the research firm.
Where the value is emerging
Four sectors are driving the bulk of interest and investment, according to the report. Pharmaceuticals are pursuing quantum applications in drug discovery, where the ability to simulate molecular interactions at scale could dramatically shorten development timelines. In finance, firms are exploring portfolio optimization and risk analysis — problems that strain classical computing systems.
Cybersecurity applications center on cryptography, as current encryption standards face potential obsolescence from quantum decryption capabilities. Materials science rounds out the list, with researchers using quantum simulations to design new compounds and alloys.
The potential economic impact is enormous. McKinsey estimated in 2023 that quantum computing could generate between $450 billion and $850 billion in economic value by 2040. That range underscores both the promise and the uncertainty surrounding the technology’s eventual commercial footprint.
Government money leads the way
Nations are pouring billions into quantum research, recognizing it as a strategic technology. The United States passed the National Quantum Initiative Act in 2018, committing $1.2 billion over five years. Europe launched the Quantum Flagship program the same year, pledging €1 billion over a decade.
China’s investment is the largest publicly known: the National Laboratory for Quantum Information Sciences has an estimated budget of $10 billion. These figures show that governments, not private markets, are carrying the early financial burden.
The technology is still too unproven for most commercial enterprises to justify large-scale internal spending, though that is changing.
Private capital is flowing in
Private investment in quantum startups reached $1.8 billion in 2022, according to McKinsey. That represents a significant uptick from prior years, as venture capital firms and corporate venture arms place bets on the technology’s long-term potential. Major technology companies are active players.
IBM, Google, and Microsoft have all invested heavily in quantum hardware and software development. On the startup side, IonQ and Rigetti have raised hundreds of millions of dollars from private investors and public markets.
The market structure remains unusual. Most current revenue comes from research grants and cloud access to quantum processors, rather than from commercial applications deployed at scale. That is typical for a technology still moving from the laboratory to the marketplace.
A nascent but accelerating market
Quantum computing today resembles classical computing in the 1950s — expensive, experimental, and limited to a small number of researchers and institutions. The $866 million in 2023 revenue reflects that reality. But the projected growth rate suggests the technology is approaching an inflection point.
The challenge for investors and policymakers is timing. The McKinsey estimate of $450 billion to $850 billion in value by 2040 is a long-range bet.
Getting there requires continued progress in error correction, qubit stability, and algorithm development. No single breakthrough will unlock the market; rather, a series of incremental advances across hardware, software, and applications will determine how quickly the projections become reality. What to watch next: whether the pace of private investment accelerates beyond the $1.8 billion recorded in 2022, and whether any of the major national quantum programs achieve the hardware milestones they have set for the late 2020s.
The market is still being built, but the foundation is firmer than it was five years ago.
