SpaceX told regulators it plans to sell 555 million shares at $135 apiece. That would raise about $75 billion, which would make it the largest IPO ever.
The filing came on a Wednesday in early June, and it is only one piece of a bigger rush. Anthropic confidentially filed for its own initial public offering, and OpenAI is expected to follow within weeks, according to Northeastern University. Together the three are expected to command valuations rarely seen in public markets.
The numbers behind the rush
Anthropic said it confidentially submitted a draft registration statement on Form S-1 to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. In its announcement the company said the filing “gives us the option to go public after the SEC completes its review,” and that any offering “will depend on market conditions and other factors.” It has not set a share count or a price.
Days earlier, Anthropic passed OpenAI in valuation after its latest funding round, $965 billion to OpenAI’s $852 billion. SpaceX is widely expected to debut above $1 trillion, and one report put its reported target at $1.75 trillion. Neither figure is confirmed by the company.
How an IPO works
Karthik Krishnan, an associate professor of finance at Northeastern who has studied IPOs, described the usual steps. After filing, a company goes on a multi-week roadshow, with executives and bankers meeting prospective investors. The banks log “indications of demand” and use them to settle on a final price. Shares sell once trading opens.
Historically, the shares have gone mostly to institutions such as hedge funds and mutual funds, not to individual traders. SpaceX has explored breaking that pattern. Up to 30% of its shares could be set aside for retail investors, which Krishnan called “an unusual” feature.
Krishnan also pointed to a familiar pattern after listing: a “price pop,” then a decline over days or weeks, then a settling.
Bubble or real business
Experts disagree on whether the valuations will hold. Krishnan said the economic value of pure-play AI firms is already visible. “Anyone of us who’s used ChatGPT knows this is not just a website with a ‘.com’ attached to it,” he said. “We’re paying for it.” Still, he added, “Whether the valuation is reflective of the true economic value is not something I can say.”
Marc Meyer, a Northeastern professor of entrepreneurship, sees echoes of the early 2000s. He said the mood “feels similar” to the dot-com years, and recalled that Sun Microsystems shares fell from about $70 to $5 within months of that bubble bursting. Meyer said he favors companies that build AI into products customers already use, naming ServiceNow, Salesforce and Qualcomm.
Krishnan’s own summary of the market was blunt: the price is set by who is willing to buy, and at what price. Anthropic’s timing depends on how the SEC review goes, and the listing could come within a couple of months.
Sources
- Why Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX are all racing to go public now
- AI firm Anthropic just filed paperwork with the SEC to go public
