Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports rose 38.4 per cent in May from a year earlier. Enterprise Singapore reported the figure on June 17, after a 24.4 per cent gain in April. Selena Ling, chief economist at OCBC, called it the highest rise in two decades.
Electronics did the heavy lifting. Shipments climbed 94.8 per cent in May, up from 66.7 per cent in April. Integrated circuits rose 80.9 per cent. Disk media products jumped 227.8 per cent and personal computers 140.9 per cent.
One force behind it
Analyst Zavier Wong of eToro traced the surge to a “single concentrated force.” Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon lifted their combined 2026 capital spending plans to more than US$700 billion in late April. “When those companies raise their spending guidance, the order flow moves upstream quickly,” he said.
Ang Wee Seng of the Singapore Semiconductor Industry Association explained how the pieces fit. Chips are the building blocks of AI systems. Disk media stores and moves the data that training and deployment demand. PC demand is more indirect, tied to corporate hardware refreshes and the first AI PCs. Not every dollar of export growth is AI-related, he said, but “a significant portion of the electronics uplift” is.
Where the shipments went
Nine of Singapore’s top 10 markets bought more in May. Taiwan led with 135.2 per cent growth, followed by the US at 80.9 per cent and China at 31 per cent. Indonesia was the exception, with exports down 26.9 per cent. Ling blamed weak domestic demand there, likely made worse by swings in the rupiah.
The momentum carried on. Electronic exports were up 131.8 per cent in August after a 112 per cent rise in July. Exports to the US rose 91 per cent and those to China 70.3 per cent in the latest figures. CGS International read that as the sign of an AI-driven investment cycle, not a broad recovery in consumer demand. Nomura put NODX growth at 34.3 per cent in the July to August period, against 27.4 per cent in the second quarter.
The risk
Wong said electronics exports “look durable” as long as hyperscaler spending holds. The flip side worried him. “If the hyperscaler spending gets revised down, the impact will be felt fairly quickly,” he said. “It’s not the base case right now, but it’s a vulnerability worth keeping an eye on.”
Monthly growth rates this high will be hard to repeat as comparisons against last year get tougher, analysts said, with inventory cycles, geopolitics, tariffs and capacity limits adding volatility. RHB keeps its 2026 GDP growth forecast at 4.5 per cent, with an upside bias toward 5 per cent. Nomura expects 5.7 per cent after a first half that grew 6.1 per cent.
Sources
- Electronic export surges 131.8% as AI-related data centre investment remains high
- 'Unprecedented' AI buildout drove Singapore's sharpest non-oil exports surge in over two decades: Analysts
