NEW YORK, September 23 — American and Iranian officials met in New York to discuss ending the war, a diplomatic opening made possible by a US decision to allow an Iranian delegation to attend United Nations meetings in the city as the conflict passed the six-month mark. The US president described the talks as “very good” at the UN meeting, according to Al Jazeera, which reported the characterization. The decision to admit the Iranian delegation was reported by the BBC.
The meeting represents the first round of direct US-Iran talks in New York since the war began, and it arrives against a domestic backdrop that assumes the fighting will not stop soon. A YouGov survey found that half of Americans expect the Iran war to continue for at least another year.
That finding frames the New York talks as an attempt to interrupt a trajectory that much of the US public already assumes will run on.
The Economic Record
CNBC reported that consumers have been hit by a one-two punch of oil and rates from the Iran war, with an estimated bill of $1,700 per household. The same reporting points to pressure on oil markets and interest rates as the war’s transmission channels into household budgets. Reporting on the war’s energy dimension also pointed to a worsening Europe oil and US diesel crunch.
Even a diplomatic breakthrough would not quickly unwind the inflation problem the war has fed. EnergyNow.com published analysis by Mike Dolan arguing that an Iran peace deal would be no silver bullet for the Fed’s inflation dilemma.
Military and Strategic Picture
The speaker of the House declared the Iran nuclear issue “taken care of,” according to CBS News. Retired US Army general Mark Hertling, writing in The Bulwark, assessed the true costs of the Iran war. The Middle East Council on Global Affairs published an assessment titled “Iran Is Battered, but Not on the Brink of Collapse,” suggesting that six months of war have damaged Iran without producing the collapse of the regime.
Other reporting raised questions about the survival of regimes in Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
On the timeline, the six-month mark presents a war that has not ended, a US public that expects it to continue for at least another year, a household cost estimated at $1,700, a nuclear file the House speaker says is “taken care of,” and a first round of US-Iran talks in New York that the US president called “very good.” Whether those talks change the trajectory is the open question the next phase of the story will answer.
