Brent crude, the benchmark that prices about 65% of the world’s traded oil, stood at $123.10 a barrel on the latest reading from the Defcon Level price tracker. That is up 42.4% over 60 days. The high for that period, based on Energy Information Administration daily figures, was $135.51.
It is not a calm market.
From $68 to $126
The Iran-Israel conflict began on February 28, 2026. It led to a partial disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, where about 20% of seaborne oil, roughly 17 million barrels a day, passes. The tracker estimates the blockade pulled 4 to 6 million barrels a day out of accessible supply. The International Energy Agency has called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market.
Brent was near $68 in late February. By mid-March it peaked near $126, a jump of about 85% in under three weeks. Tanker insurance rates for the strait rose 10 to 15 times, according to Lloyd’s of London reporting.
Thin cushions
The buffers are small. OPEC’s spare capacity is put at 3 to 4 million barrels a day, and OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report forecasts demand growth of 1.8 million barrels a day for 2026. Saudi Arabia is holding output 1.5 million barrels a day below capacity. Commercial inventories in OECD countries sit below the five-year average, per EIA weekly data, and U.S. strategic reserves were drawn down in 2022 and only partly refilled.
Global demand averaged about 103 million barrels a day in early 2026, the IEA says.
What it means at the pump
Think of crude as a bit over half your gasoline bill. The EIA puts it at about 54% of the U.S. pump price, with refining margins, taxes and distribution making up the rest. Each $10 a barrel adds roughly $0.25 a gallon, and changes usually reach the pump within one to two weeks. At $123.10, U.S. households face gasoline costs well above pre-crisis levels.
The International Monetary Fund estimates a sustained $10 rise in crude cuts global GDP growth by about 0.15 percentage points. Net importers such as most of Europe, Japan, South Korea and India take the hit through imported inflation. The United States produces 13.2 million barrels a day, the most of any country, yet still imports about 2.5 million net.
