Diesel in the United States cost about $3.50 a gallon before the war with Iran. By early October it had climbed to $6.20.
The United States and Israel launched a military operation against Iran on Feb. 28, 2026. Since then, threats against commercial vessels and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have thinned out traffic through the strait and pushed oil prices up. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and drought restrictions at the Panama Canal have hit other routes at the same time. Several of the world’s busiest shipping lanes are constrained at once.
Hormuz and the diesel question
The Ukrainian outlet NV examined the routes in an infographic and concluded the Hormuz blockade is the main driver of rising diesel prices worldwide. President Donald Trump has put most of the blame on Ukraine. The numbers cited by NV point elsewhere.
In 2025, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman together exported about 1.4 million barrels of diesel a day. The Middle East war cut that figure sharply by September 2026. Russia shipped roughly 810,000 barrels a day in 2025 and was down to about 140,000 by September.
BBC Verify looked at the same question in October and found that the U.S. war against Iran had a greater effect on the global drop in diesel exports than the war in Ukraine did. It named Iranian strikes on tankers and the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports as the main cause.
Why does diesel matter so much? Trucks, vans and ships run on it. When it gets more expensive, the BBC noted, shippers can pass the cost along to buyers.
A new front in the Red Sea
Iran’s allies in Yemen, the Houthis, stepped up operations. In September 2026 they launched an offensive against Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces, trying to take control of the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Shipping companies responded by sending vessels around Africa. That means longer trips and higher costs.
Drought at Panama, danger in the Black Sea
The Panama Canal has its own problem. Since summer 2026, El Niño and a lack of rain have lowered water levels in the canal and limited traffic. From May through August, rainfall ran 34% below average.
The Black Sea remains risky too. Russia has attacked vessels there and undermined Ukraine’s grain corridor. Drone strikes, mines and port blockades have made trade dangerous or impossible in places, and shipping and insurance costs have gone up with them.
Sources
- Middle East war and Panama drought strain critical global shipping routes — NV infographic
- Indian Ocean trade
