The United States added just 29,000 jobs in September, far short of what economists expected, and the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.1 percent to 4.2 percent. The bottom line: hiring is close to stalling.
By the numbers, Dow Jones had forecast 84,000 new jobs and a Reuters poll of economists pointed to 90,000. The Labor Department released the report on Friday, the last before the midterm elections on November 3.
Where the jobs came from
Healthcare led, adding 17,000 positions, though that is well below its average of 33,000 a month over the past year. Construction added 11,000 and manufacturing 9,000. Financial activities, which covers commercial banking and insurance, shed 7,000. Retail, oil and gas extraction, and leisure and hospitality were largely flat.
Revisions made the picture worse. July went from an initial gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000 jobs. August was cut by 29,000, from 162,000 to 133,000. Wages grew 3 percent over the year, the slowest pace in five years.
Reaction and the week’s other data
“Today’s disappointing report shows the labour market is grinding to a halt, marked by slow hiring and declining real wages that leave workers with very little leverage,” said Kyle Moore, chief economist at The Century Foundation. Breyon Williams, chief economist at Groundwork Collaborative, put it this way: “When businesses are barely hiring and raises aren’t keeping up with rising prices, it’s a stalled economy.”
The report capped a soft week. An AP-NORC poll released Thursday found 61 percent of Americans think the economy is worse off than when Trump took office in January 2025. The Tuesday JOLTS report showed little change, which economists call a low-hire, low-fire market: workers are staying put and employers are not expanding. President Trump has pushed a different line. On Monday he wrote on Truth Social that the country has “the BEST Employment Numbers in HISTORY.”
Not every indicator was grim. ADP’s private payroll report on Wednesday showed 90,000 jobs created, and Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported employers cut more than 43,000 jobs in September, an 18 percent drop in layoffs from August.
What investors will note
Markets rose on the news. The Nasdaq gained 1.5 percent, the S&P 500 1.1 percent and the Dow 0.6 percent in midday trading, and gold climbed 1.1 percent to $4,223.49. A weak report makes a rate hold more likely, and CME FedWatch put the odds of the Fed holding at 3.75 to 4.00 percent at 77.3 percent, up from 35.8 percent a week earlier. The central bank meets October 27 and 28, its last decision before the vote.
