Ontario pulled 3,600 American alcohol products off its shelves. Irish whiskey exports to Canada jumped to 420,000 cases. Those two facts are connected. And they tell a bigger story about how trade is shifting under the pressure of US tariffs.
The numbers come from Todd McCarthy, Ontario’s environment minister, and Eoin Ó Catháin of the Irish Whiskey Association. McCarthy told RTÉ News that trade between Ireland and Canada has “definitely escalated” as tensions between Ottawa and Washington rise. The trigger is clear: US tariffs on EU goods, including a standard 15% duty on Irish whiskey.
Ireland’s whiskey makers are feeling that tariff directly. Ó Catháin described “huge growth” year on year in Canada. The 420,000 cases sold there represent a sharp increase even from two years ago. He pointed to “instability in the global trading environment” as a driver. Buyers are looking for reliable partners. Canada, with its provisional implementation of CETA since 2017, offers that certainty.
Trade between Ireland and Canada has grown 98% under CETA’s provisional rules. That deal has been in effect for seven years but Ireland has not ratified it. Delays kept it in limbo. Now that may change. RTÉ News reports Ireland is on track to approve CETA next week, following Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to the country.
The Ontario alcohol ban is a concrete example of how retaliation reshapes markets. Premier Doug Ford’s government pulled those 3,600 US products from store shelves and restaurant menus. Ontario is one of the world’s biggest buyers of alcohol. That move created immediate space for competitors. Irish whiskey filled some of it.
What this adds up to is a realignment. US tariffs were meant to pressure trading partners. Instead, they are pushing those partners closer together. Canada and Ireland were already linked by CETA. Now they are linked by shared frustration with Washington. The 15% tariff on Irish whiskey entering the US makes Canada a more attractive market. The Ontario ban on American liquor makes Irish whiskey a more attractive substitute.
McCarthy called the increase in bilateral trade a boost from US tariffs. That is a diplomatic way of saying the policy backfired. American distillers lost shelf space in Ontario. Irish distillers gained customers. The numbers show it.
Ireland’s ratification of CETA would lock in this shift. It would make the provisional arrangement permanent. That matters because provisional deals can be unwound. Ratified treaties are harder to reverse. If Ireland approves CETA next week, the 98% trade growth becomes a foundation, not a fluke.
None of this guarantees smooth sailing. Trade deals take years to show full effects. CETA itself took a decade to negotiate. But the immediate trend is clear: when one door closes, another opens. The US tariff door closed on Irish whiskey. The Canadian market door opened wider.
Ó Catháin noted the “greater appreciation for those trading partners who are a bit more certain.” That is the core of the story. Certainty is scarce in global trade right now. Countries that offer it get rewarded. Ireland and Canada are rewarding each other.
